National risk assessment

Updated December 2025

A coordinated compilation of the risk assessments prepared by different actors: the administrative branches select threat models and identify disruptions that will have a national impact on the vital functions of society.
The risk assessments, or similar products and processes produced by the different actors, are utilised in the preparation of the national risk assessment.
The ministry carrying the main responsibility shall write the documents based on its own threat models and incidents.
All threat models and disruptions are assessed from the perspective of their direct or indirect effects on the vital functions of society.
The administration will make use of EU guidelines and the national risk assessments prepared by other countries.
Regional risk assessments are prepared in a cross-administrative manner, involving the municipalities, authorities, business life and organisations in each region.

Threat models and disruptions (National Risk Assessment 2023):

information influencing,
political, economic and military pressure,
use of military force,
large-scale immigration and pressures produced by directing migrants,
terrorist or other violent attacks on the structures of society or on large groups of people,
violent movements of large crowds, groups or communities, or any other activities endangering social order,
fiscal shock,
financial disruption,
disruption of energy supply,
disruption of information and communications networks and services,
disruption of transport continuity,
health security disruptions,
disruption of water supply,
disruption of food supply and deterioration of food and nutrition security,
large-scale accidents with long-term consequences.

Sources and links