Arctic region and states

The Arctic usually refers to the Arctic region north of the Arctic Circle, and the Arctic states comprise those countries that extend north of the Arctic Circle (Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway, Denmark (through Greenland), Iceland, Sweden and Finland). These are member states of the Arctic Council. Another definition of the Arctic is based on temperatures: it is the region where the average temperature in the warmest month of the year is less than +10°C.  Both boundaries are marked on the attached map.

Security policy disputes have not so far affected the Arctic significantly, due, for example, to the harsh conditions in the region. However, the situation is changing as a result of climate change. Warmer temperatures are melting the permafrost in the Arctic, as well as the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean. As a result, sea routes such as the Northern Sea Route to the north of Russia and the Northwest Passage to the north of Canada are gradually opening up. In addition, natural resources such as hydrocarbons, minerals and fish stocks that could not be profitably exploited in the past may be more easily available in the future. These factors increase global interest in the Arctic region as a whole. The new opportunities are largely in Russia’s territory or exclusive economic zone, and Russia is preparing militarily to ensure that they remain under its control. Other countries bordering the Arctic Ocean are also increasing their military capabilities in the Arctic operating environments.

More than 60 % of the total land area of the Arctic belongs to Russia, and more than 80 % of the population of the Arctic region are counted as Russian citizens. Nearly 40 % of Canada’s territory is north of the Arctic Circle, but only 120,000 Canadian citizens live there. The United States became an Arctic state only in 1867, when it purchased Alaska from Russia. Due to climate change, the United States has also noticed that the Arctic is becoming more important.

Finland, Sweden and Norway are naturally Arctic states, as a significant part of their territory lies north of the Arctic Circle. Iceland’s northernmost tip and sea area extend north of the Arctic Circle. Denmark’s status as an Arctic state is based only on the fact that Greenland belongs to Denmark.

Climate change in the Arctic

The visible consequences of climate change in the Arctic include melting glaciers, decreasing ice cover in the Arctic Ocean and thawing permafrost, especially in the northern parts of Russia. These phenomena will open up opportunities for the profitable exploitation of Arctic natural resources and the introduction of arctic sea routes within 10–20 years. The untapped oil, natural gas and mineral resources in the region are estimated to be huge, and there are also large fish reserves in the Arctic Ocean. Fish catches in northern sea areas are expected to increase, as fish stocks are moving further north as a result of the warming seas.

Based on computer modelling and simulations, it has been estimated that, by the 2040s, both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage will be used for maritime traffic during the summer seasons without icebreaker assistance. In the second half of the century, the route directly through the North Pole is predicted to become the shortest northern sea route.

Arctic sea routes have the potential to significantly shorten sea journeys between Europe and Asia and between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, merchant shipping will need intermediate ports and other support, which will likely be scarce for many years to come, on routes measuring thousands of kilometres. Maritime conditions will also remain difficult for a long time, even in the summer season, because of the pack ice, fog and storms prevalent in the Arctic Ocean.

The use of commercial maritime transport connections will depend on the achievement of greater transport and timetable security. As long as conditions on the arctic sea routes remain uncertain, large-scale commercial activities cannot begin. For this reason, arctic sea routes will remain options only, for the time being.

Read more in the menu Security impacts of climate change (link).

Arctic Council

The Arctic Council is a co-operation body of Arctic states whose members are Russia, the United States, Canada and all of the Nordic countries. Indigenous peoples’ organisations have a permanent right to participate in the meetings of the Arctic Council. In addition, 38 observers have the right to attend the meetings, 13 of whom represent non-Arctic states (the major European countries, as well as China, Japan, South Korea and India), and others of whom represent various international and nature conservation organisations. As three EU countries are members of the Arctic Council, the EU also has an interest in the region and has sought to become an observer in the Arctic Council. But this requires the consent of the permanent member states, and some members oppose it.

The aim has been to keep the Arctic Council as a non-political cooperation body that does not deal with security policy or military matters. When Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022, the Western members of the Arctic Council announced that they would boycott the Council’s activities until further notice, leaving the Council paralysed.

Economic and military interest in the Arctic is growing

Attractive economic prospects and new opportunities have increased interest in the Arctic regions. The ownership of the continental shelves, the seabed and the sea area of the Arctic Ocean has not yet been determined, because there has been no need for it. But the situation is changing. The countries bordering the Arctic Ocean have extended their exclusive economic zones in the Arctic Ocean and made their sometimes conflicting ownership claims to the sea area on the basis of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. For example, the demands made by Russia and Denmark concerning the underwater Lomonosov Ridge overlap to some extent in the North Pole region.

The Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage are the shortest sea routes between Asia and Europe. The Northern Sea Route is mostly in Russia’s Northern Economic Zone, and Russia requires foreign vessels to give at least 45 days’ advance notice and to use a Russian pilot throughout the voyage. Canada regards the Northwest Passage as located in its internal waters, and foreign vessels must at least give advance notice to the Canadian authorities or even request permission to use it. The US, the EU and China do not recognise Canada’s and Russia’s claims.

China is interested in the natural resources and other economic interests of the Arctic. It sees the Northern Sea Route as part of its global transport connections to different parts of the world. China claims to be a “near Arctic” country and has sought membership of the Arctic Council but has had to settle for observer status. Russia has offered to cooperate with China in the development of the Northern Sea Route.

For decades, the Arctic has been important for the major powers, especially in terms of nuclear deterrence and strategic early warning systems. Both US and Soviet/Russian submarines have long been operating in the Arctic Ocean, including under the polar ice. The majority of Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent lies in the Arctic at bases in Murmansk and the Kola Peninsula, and military activity has consequently increased in the Arctic in recent years.

The military significance of the north for Russia is great. It has a northern coastline thousands of kilometers long, which, due to climate change, is gradually freeing itself from ice. Russia has the most effective military capability in Arctic conditions, including dozens of icebreakers, for example. For the last 15 years, it has been renovating military bases, airports and ports in its northern coastal areas, and has also been building completely new bases. Russia will undoubtedly intensify its territorial surveillance and seek to ensure that its military superiority in the Arctic is maintained.

Russia’s military build-up in the Arctic worries NATO countries, whose own military capability in the region is clearly weaker. While NATO’s interests in the Arctic are growing, the opportunities for action in the region are based on the Arctic capabilities of its member states. Due to the perceived threat, the NATO countries in the Arctic region are strengthening their military capabilities in the north. Although the United States has been slow to react to the consequences of climate change and the growing importance of the Arctic, it has acknowledged that the security threat to the north will increase as the protective ice cover decreases and weapons technology advances. China is also seen as a growing threat in the Arctic.

The United States lags far behind Russia in terms of Arctic capability. For example, its naval surface vessels cannot operate in icy conditions, and it has only two icebreakers. However, the United States is seeking to increase the presence and operational capability of its armed forces in the north – for example, in Alaska. Together with its NATO allies, it has conducted large-scale military exercises in the northern seas. In the Arctic, the United States can also rely on the infrastructure and bases of its NATO allies.

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will bring two new Arctic member states with diverse experience and expertise in conducting military operations in cold conditions on the northern flank of the alliance.