Trends in space warfare
- Strong growth of Russian and Chinese military capabilities in space
- Freedom to operate in space increasingly critical for US and NATO armed forces
- The increasing vulnerability of space services
- The arrival of spatial and situational awareness sensors
- The increasing threat of space debris
- Satellites equipped with cyber-attack capabilities
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Between 2019 and 2021, the combined operational space fleets of China and Russia grew by about 70 %. This recent and ongoing expansion follows an earlier period of growth (2015-2018) in which China and Russia increased their satellite fleets by more than 200 %.
The drive of both countries to modernise and increase their capabilities is reflected in almost all major space categories – satellite communications (SATCOM), remote sensing, navigation and the application of science and technology.
From the Western point of view, China and Russia are seen as seeking to dominate space and, if necessary, to prohibit others from using space. The freedom to operate in space is critical for the continued capability of the armed forces of the United States and NATO countries to plan logistics and conduct operations and exercises around the world. Space eases communication, situational awareness and accurate navigation for troops. It is not easy to distinguish between military and civilian space capabilities. Any interference with the space services used by the military can also block the space services necessary for civilians, either accidentally or intentionally. Many counterspace weapons are intended to temporarily weaken space services but can also permanently damage or destroy satellites. Physical or cyber-attacks against infrastructures supporting ground and space operations can also threaten satellite services.
Because situational and spatial awareness sensors predict how satellites will travel in orbit, this also enables the monitoring, warning and, if necessary, targeting of space-based systems.
Opponents can disrupt the navigation and communications satellites used in command-and-control systems of the Army, Navy and Air Force, as well as manned and unmanned equipment on land, sea and air.
Attacks on ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) satellites can temporarily or permanently blind imaging satellites and other strategic sensors, preventing the ability to observe, track and locate desired targets.
ASAT (anti-satellite) missiles can be used in different orbits to destroy satellites while producing huge amounts of space debris that can remain in orbit for decades or even centuries. In 2007, China tested an ASAT missile against its own weather satellite, creating a cloud of debris that threatens satellites in near orbit. Russia used an ASAT missile in November 2021, destroying one of its abandoned satellites in orbit.
Other space-based weapons can produce temporary or permanent effects on other satellites. Nuclear-weapon states can use long-range missiles with additional rocket engines, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or satellite launch vehicles (SLVs), which can cause a nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere, which would cause widespread electromagnetic interference in and beyond space. This would lead to the damage or destruction of satellites.
The latest space warfare technologies include satellites equipped with cyberattack capabilities and satellites that include AI-controlled mini-satellite drones, using swarming tactics to damage or destroy adversary satellites.
Sources and links
Challenges to Security in Space – 2022:
https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/Military_Power_Publications/Challenges_Security_Space_2022.pdf
Finkbeiner Ann, How Do We Prevent War in Space? There are defensive, offensive and diplomatic options for averting conflicts in orbit. Scientific American, November 1, 2020:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-do-we-prevent-war-in-space/