Hybrid and cyber influencing

Hybrid and cyber influencing have emerged alongside military threats as a means of malicious state-led influence. Hybrid influencing typically combines indirect and direct methods. It exploits societal vulnerabilities, but it may also include the threat or use of military force. Hybrid influencing is a long-term and covert activity that aims to achieve goals with indirect effects. The events can be unclear and open to interpretation, and it is difficult to identify their perpetrators.

In hybrid influencing, a wide range of means can be used, such as propaganda, information, social media manipulation, fake news, information leaks, influencing parties and politicians, economic pressure, or interference with information networks.

According to the authorities, Finland has been subjected to malicious hybrid influence during the war in Ukraine. The most well-known indication of this has been instrumentalised immigration, in which Russia is believed to have directed large numbers of third-country nationals to seek asylum at Finland’s borders, thereby attempting to disrupt border control and the maintenance of internal order. The damage to submarine cables and gas pipelines in the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea has been interpreted as hybrid influence directed at Finland and other Baltic Sea countries. In Finland, there have also been cases of unclear disruptions targeting critical infrastructure, which can be interpreted as sabotage or malicious hybrid influencing. Common to all these cases is that it has been either difficult or impossible to identify the perpetrators and prove intentionality.

Cyber influencing is the latest tool for hybrid-influencing, and its targets include information systems and digital networks. Finland and Western countries in general are highly digitalised societies. Such influencing may be carried out by state actors, cyber-criminals or a combination of both. Cyber influencing can take the form of intelligence gathering (espionage), attacking, or manipulating information. Cyber intelligence is similar to traditional intelligence and espionage activities, as their purpose is to obtain classified or sensitive information. A cyberattack refers to an attack that specifically targets the information network infrastructures of society’s electricity, communications, water, financial, and critical systems. In cyber engineering, hacker groups can alter information stored in a computer network once they have access to the system. There is a risk that an intruder could modify the information so that the net-work owner can no longer trust the accuracy of their own system.

Finland is prepared to combat cyber threats with its cyber security strategy. The goal is to create “cyber resilience” in society, meaning that a digitalised society can operate reliably and withstand disruptions.

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Climate change

Climate security poses a broad security threat to societies and human safety. Climate change may create large numbers of climate refugees. As a result of disasters caused by climate change, such as droughts, large areas may become uninhabitable, forcing people to leave their home regions and move elsewhere. Climate change may also lead to disputes over natural resources, create political instability, and exacerbate existing conflicts.

The northernmost parts of the Earth are warming at up to four times the rate of the global average. The Arctic region is rich in natural gas, crude oil, minerals, and fish reserves that have not yet been exploited due to harsh climatic conditions or because exploitation has not been economically viable. The decrease in sea ice and glaciers, as well as the melting of permafrost, will make it possible in the future to access natural resources and to benefit from the opening of Arctic sea routes. However, the management of the sea areas and continental shelves in the Arctic Ocean and the natural resources they contain remains partly unresolved.

In Finland, a report commissioned by the Prime Minister’s Office on the organisation of weather and climate risk assessments examined risk factors, exposure, and societal vulnerability. The aim is to support and facilitate adaptation to climate change. The development of defence capabilities takes into account extreme weather conditions, which directly affect infrastructure, defence materiel, and personnel operational readiness, for example.

Read more in the menu: Security impacts of climate change