According to the Government Defence Report published in Finland in 2021 and the Topical Report on the Change in the Security Environment published in 2022, modern military threats and war manifest themselves in diverse and multidimensional ways. The said publications define the concept of wide-ranging influencing which, although it embraces the often-used term “hybrid influencing”, also includes the threat and use of military force in a significant role.

With respect to the Defence Forces, the wide-ranging influencing threat model describes a situation in which a state actor pursues its objectives by creating favourable conditions for itself and promotes its own goals by combining various indirect and direct means. These may include covert activities aimed at achieving objectives through indirect effects and expanded over a long period of time, taking advantage of a society’s vulnerabilities under normal circumstances. As a result, no clear distinction may arise between normal inter-state competition and abnormal conflict. It is manifested by a series of events that are difficult to identify and relate to each other. This makes it difficult to link events to a state actor and thus to establish a state of emergency.

In wide-ranging influencing, a state actor may seek to cause uncertainty in the target country and among its citizens – and, at worst, even affect the sovereignty or independence of the target state. The tools employed in wide-ranging influencing may also include military pressure and threats to use military force. Military pressure consumes the resources not only of the defence system, but also of society. Long-term pressure has spill-over effects on the target country’s internal security, international position, resilience to mental crises, the country’s will to defend itself and its political leadership. Military force can be used systematically, or the situation can escalate unintentionally. The path to a possible military conflict can occur either quickly or as the result of long-term provocation.

The influencing process is always tailored for the distinctive characteristics of the target country and the estimated weaknesses. Therefore, no direct conclusions can necessarily be drawn from the influencing activities employed against other countries when assessing the threat against Finland. However, the war in Ukraine and the related events have highlighted the need to address and thoroughly understand the phenomenon of wide-ranging influencing.